There is also the extremely tricky issue of mobilisation which is now being addressed but requires up to 500,000 recruits The most recent reports suggests that a deal is getting closer in the Senate but it will not be finalised until later in January, assuming that there are not further delays Even with these new packages some of the shortages – particularly in artillery shells – will continue This is already starting to be felt in front-line operations so that commanders are having to ration allocations, making awkward priorities about operational needs There have been much publicised problems with the next large tranches of EU and US support
We also need to keep in mind that there have been some successes, including pushing back the Black Sea Fleet through the effective use of naval drones In practice the problem was that the Ukrainians had been encouraged to embrace a western manoeuvre concept but without the capacity to make it work, which left them too dependent on the Russian army being in a weakened and demoralised state The Ukrainians reverted to the sort of smaller-scale operations that they understood better
Research suggests that the path to war resembles a bargaining game, where countries compete over issues like territory and resources to patriotism or the style of governance Rather than going to war, which is very costly, competing states prefer to settle these disagreements peacefully Ideally, the two sides do this based upon their relative probabilities of winning a hypothetical war In https//euronewstopcouk/what-is-australia-saying-about-ukrainehtml of days, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has escalated to one of the biggest military conflicts in Europe since the second world war The fog of war can obscure our view of who is winning, who is losing, and how long all of this will last While no one can provide definitive answers, academic research on war gives us some insights into how the conflict in Ukraine might unfold
Recently, Ukraine's winter offensive seems to have come to a halt More than ever, the outcome depends on political decisions made miles away from the centre of the conflict - in Washington and in Brussels Russia invaded Ukraine early on February 24, 2022, with Putin describing the invasion as a "special military operation"
Army captain who last year became a special adviser to Gen Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the commander of the Ukrainian military On Feb 24, 2022, Russian forces attacked Ukraine without frozen ground to support their armored vehicles, which meant they had to stick to roads, where they stood out as easy targets In Jensen’s view, even the collapse of Russia’s conventional force or a traditional Ukrainian victory may not mean the war is over; either could lead to nuclear escalation by Russia Either side may act boldly if it winds up on the ropes and needs an exit strategy
That scenario could embolden critics of the war; increase public discontent with continued funding for Ukraine; and pose a problem in terms of arms production and supplies for the West "I think the danger for Ukrainians is if they really do end up with a stalemate, where they've gained very, very little territory where a lot of the equipment supplied by the West has been written off with Ukrainians having suffered very significant casualties," Shea said It's become clear that the counteroffensive won't produce quick results and that success — however that might be measured in terms of retaking Russian-occupied territory — is not guaranteed
Yet six months on Putin does not give the appearance of having suffered long-term harm Perhaps this remains a situation in which absence of evidence is not the same as evidence of absence The lack of political noise in Moscow does not mean that there is no unease or dissent among the elite Wars often do not end predictably, and a failure to achieve hoped-for victories often leads to a sudden change of government Ukraine appears very dependent on Volodymyr Zelenskiy in terms of its public diplomacy, but he does not direct its military strategy in detail and the country’s desire to fight runs very deep This would bear similarities to the situation after the initial Russian incursions into Ukraine in 2014 – but this time the west would be left facing an implacable, large hostile actor in Moscow
Meanwhile, Putin can look to the post-Soviet space for an example of how to play the long game, said David Rivera assistant professor of government at Hamilton College, Clinton, New York The Republican primary front runner has been announced by Kremlin propagandists as Moscow's favored White House resident-in-waiting, not just because of his railing against congressional support for Ukraine Trump also described Putin as "very smart" following the full-scale invasion and has rejected US intelligence assessments that Putin had interfered on his behalf in the 2016 election Ukraine's commander-in-chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi's assessment that fighting had entered a "stalemate" was rejected by Zelensky amid rumors of a split between the country's most prominent figures, and reports of a reshuffle of top brass in the New Year "The only way I can foresee the Ukraine war possibly ending in 2024 is if Vladimir Putin dies," Beth Knobel, professor of communications and media studies at Fordham University, and former CBS News Moscow bureau chief, told Newsweek