Russian forces were bombarding Kharkiv, and they had taken territory in the east and south as far as Kherson, and surrounded the port city of Mariupol The city of Bakhmut, which has endured some of the heaviest fighting of the war, has been under Russian control for several months and, although Ukraine gained some ground in the surrounding areas over the summer, the battles continue Significant Ukrainian forces were also freed after a Russian retreat from Kherson

• In a June articlenbsp;by Sergei Karaganov, an established ultra-nationalist analyst, which I discussed in October, most interest was in his urging Putin to take more nuclear risks advice rejected by Putin
• More likely, Snyder argues, Putin is trying to instill fear in order to buy his military time and undermine international support for Ukraine
• The Wagner mutiny, and Mr Prigozhin's denunciation of the Kremlin's justifications for the war have, they said, removed what remained of Mr Putin's chances of hanging on
• The Brookings Institution’s Fiona Hill, a senior director for European and Russian affairs on the US

The Russian ruling elite saw the Soviet Union’s collapse merely as a reconfiguration in which former Soviet countries would “continue to be together in some way”, Popova told Al Jazeera, whereas Ukraine saw it as an opportunity to be fully independent Emory University’s Reiter listed two main reasons for the lack of appetite in Ukraine for any negotiations that would mean accepting the loss of territory “The war has been so absolutely brutal that they’re fearful of what will happen in territories handed over to Russia,” he said Unlike in the case of Serbia, experts do not foresee a scenario in which the US-led Western alliance would actively attack Russia

Leadership change

We asked three military analysts how they think events may unfold in the coming 12 months

The Ukrainians themselves are engaged in what is becoming a very public debate about how long they can hold out against Putin With Ukraine running low on troops as well as weapons, Zelenskyy’s refusal to consider any fresh negotiations with Moscow is looking more and more politically untenable at home The Ukrainian president, seeking to draft another half million troops, is facing rising domestic opposition from his military commander in chief, Gen https//notesio/wfjrg , and the mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko This is not the only major front on which Biden is trying to end a war — and avoid bad headlines in an election year

Which weapons will Washington send

Industrial-age warfare bends significant parts, or in some cases whole economies, towards the production of war materials as matters of priority Russia's defence budget has tripled since 2021 and will consume 30 of government spending next year Compared with this time last year, Vladimir Putin is stronger, politically more than militarily

• The plant, on the north-western outskirts of the town, dominates the main road into Avdiivka and, the UK Ministry of Defence MoD believes if Russian forces were to secure it, resupplying the town would "become increasingly difficult for Ukraine"
• President Volodomyr Zelensky has admitted his country's spring offensive has not been the success he hoped
• Ukraine’s war reaches the one-year mark with no immediate end in sight
• In his office, Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council, told the BBC that "Prigozhin is not the most senior They might become the new political elite"
• Still, she said, whatever border is drawn between Russia and Ukraine is likely to be far longer and harder to secure than the one dividing the Korean peninsula
• Yes, Russian forces could try to go on the offensive again, but the likely futility of attacking fortified Ukrainian positions now backed by the threat of NATO firepower would be a strong deterrent

Polls show that Biden’s earlier pledge of unlimited support for Israel’s retaliation is costing him support, especially among his progressive Democratic base “Those discussions [about peace talks] are starting, but [the administration] can’t back down publicly because of the political risk” to Biden, said a congressional official who is familiar with the administration’s thinking and who was granted anonymity to speak freely In his October assessment, Snyder floated one scenario in which Ukrainian military victories prompt a power struggle in Moscow that leads Russia to withdraw from Ukraine, as Putin and his rivals judge that the armed forces loyal to them are most useful on the homefront

I expect Melitopol will become the key battle point in the coming months maybe weeks Having taken over Melitopol, Ukrainians will easily move to the Azov Sea, effectively cutting off supply and communication lines to Crimea Concluding his briefing, Mr Rajasingham said that while Ukraine remains under attack and in a state of conflict, the conditions causing the devastation, and the ripple effects around the world, will persist Informing ambassadors of humanitarians’ efforts to deliver aid across the country, Mr Rajasingham said that last week, the 100th interagency convoy for 2023 reached Chasiv Yar, in Donetsk Oblast, eastern Ukraine

President Zelensky tweeted his gratitude, saying military aid was "needed more than ever" The following day, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov accused Kyiv authorities of not wanting to continue talks to end hostilities Nato is certainly taking no chances and has put over 100 warplanes on full alert Britain was one of the first countries to send reinforcements - to a grateful Estonia, where Kusti Salm is nevertheless realistic about what they can achieve But President Putin, who has all but squashed any opposition in his own country, will have taken note of how his autocratic neighbour in Belarus effectively crushed the protests there over the last two years

He will have been able to see whether or not the EU and the US have sorted out their funding packages According to Politico , encouraged by the Biden administration, this is the shift in posture currently underway, bolstering air defences, strengthening positions in eastern Ukraine, and making it harder for Russian forces to attack from Belarus The suggestion is that this is to prepare for eventual negotiations, although the main need is simply for Ukraine to show that it can play a long game Ukraine is more than holding its own, but it wanted to have liberated another chunk of its territory during 2023 and that has not happened

One key question that could determine the war’s end game is how long Ukraine’s backers can keep up their arms donations to Kyiv It took 15 votes for McCarthy to secure the position, after which he appointed three Republicans who oppose Ukraine aid — Thomas Massie of Kentucky, Ralph Norman of South Carolina and Chip Roy of Texas — to the Rules Committee, which controls legislation and debate on the House floor He agreed to a House rules change that would allow any member to initiate a vote to remove him as speaker, forcing him to tread carefully even on issues that enjoy majority Republican support — such as Ukraine assistance

The biggest prize for Russia is Kyiv, the capital city and seat of President Zelensky's government - a city where fighting has already been taking place But Biden and other Western leaders should tell them that this is an option they will have if their counteroffensive is still grinding on next year It could prove the best chance to achieve the victory that Ukraine and the democratic world need soon, while making it both Putin- and Trump-proof In late September Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s defense minister, said the Russians had an “activity plan until 2025,” and the next month Putin declared that Ukraine would have a “week to live” if arms supplies from Western countries were to end Putin could be helped further in Europe by recent election victories for more of his far-right sympathizers, including Robert Fico in Slovakia and Geert Wilders in the Netherlands, both of whom might join Orban in blocking a proposed 50 billion euro 549 billion aid package